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SFC10 Day 3 What To Do

July 13th, 2012, 9:59 pm

Average Rating: 5.00
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Author's Comments:

Reply SWSU-Master, July 13th, 2012, 9:59 pm

Who will be going home first?

User's Comments:

Reply Vilecheese, July 13th, 2012, 10:04 pm

Well given Vent's morals he'd likely target Xero.

I still can't see him leaving though without anyone even mentioning his ear...and if Jackie leaves this early imma be pissed and so would be so many others.

Still predicting it'll be Chloe. She'll probably sink herself at TC.

Reply Slicer37 (Guest), July 13th, 2012, 10:05 pm

now I remember why I hate Ventious. :rolleyes:

Reply Lemia (Guest), July 13th, 2012, 10:08 pm

Nice try, Chloe. Jackie's a very emotion-fuelled creature, so he's definitely going to be voting for the Benedict Bunny now.

I'll refrain from making any predictions for the first boot, as the strategies going on here are really chaotic, but no matter which way the chips fall, someone is going to leave Tribal Council disappointed and/or pissed off.

Reply Matty777 (Guest), July 13th, 2012, 10:09 pm

For Some Reason, I See Ryuia Going Home... But Idk Why ;) Just Cuz She Said She's Safe..

Reply AkumaTh, July 13th, 2012, 10:12 pm

Well, there goes my prediction. Xero pretty much is up a creek without a paddle. Chloe and Xero are probably going to be the only one voting differently.

Reply QJD, July 13th, 2012, 10:15 pm

Vent's been a goody two shoes all this time, I doubt he'll suddenly change a new leaf on day 3.

Then again, Heel Bitsy happened....

Reply qazox, July 13th, 2012, 10:25 pm

@QJD: a Heel Ventious... that would be very interesting.

Odds of going home:

Xero- 4:9
Chloe- 5:1
Chrii- 10:1
Jackie- 12-1
everyone else- 25:1

Reply anime9001, July 13th, 2012, 10:56 pm

Again? Xero never got anything over Jackie. Admittedly, he got super lucky both times, but Xero failed when he tried to idol Hienz last time, and he is gonna fail getting out Jackie. Only difference is, this one cost him the game.

Reply Gigas (Guest), July 13th, 2012, 11:37 pm

@qazox: I think you might want to check your math... I doubt Xero has a 225% chance of going. Or, if I'm reading those wrong, I don't think there's a 500% chance of Chloe going home either.

On another note, it appears that Vent is going for idiot of the season. Probably won't work, but has already managed to get me back to not liking him.

Reply rt555 (Guest), July 13th, 2012, 11:41 pm

Interesting, it seems Xero may be the one going but knowing this comic he either saved himself from going, or he tried to it but fail and get voted out. Plus, that Chole sure is stubborn huh?

Reply SkySurfer (Guest), July 14th, 2012, 12:26 am

If Ventious stays true to his principles he votes against backstabber Xero. Then again... changing principles to play a better game is what many survivors do

I seriously expected Chloe to be one of the targets but right now she seems like the forgotten one who'll cast a single vote for Chrii. Unless Xero was so good at finding his own idol, he'll leave tomorrow. I think both Xero and Jackie are cool characters but right now I'd prefer Jackie to stay

Reply qazox, July 14th, 2012, 12:40 am

@Gigas:
Odds don't work that way. Didn't you ever take basic statistics or bet on sports?

I'll explain a bit:

The odds are that I think that Xero is more than twice as likely to be voted out than any one else. Chloe has about a 20% chance of being voted out; Chrii about 10%; Jackie 8.25% and everyone else 4%. Odds don't have to equal 100%

Or to put it in betting terms if I were a casino/betting parlor and taking real Odds on:
For every $9 bet on Xero to be voted out you'd win back $4; For the others: you'd "win" $5 for every $1 bet on Chloe to be voted out; $10 for every $1 on Chrii being voted out; etc.

hope that cleared it up for ya.

Reply sesaree (Guest), July 14th, 2012, 1:09 am

There's just something I cannot wait to know if ventious is really that stupid to lose tribe mates by voting jackie off or cool by voting off xero

Reply anime9001, July 14th, 2012, 1:30 am

@qazox: Odds are confusing, as you said, they don't need to equal up to 100%, but part of what I think Gigas was pointing out was that the higher number always needs to be on one side, or else someone will have an chance of over 100%, which is obviously impossible, so either Xero would have a 9:4 chance, or the other four would need to be flipped instead. Although, this is through a logic perspective, and I really don't know how odds work either, so if I'm wrong, feel free to correct me.

Reply Masteroftheives, July 14th, 2012, 6:00 am

Cue the Chaos I have no clue who's going home, Xero has a HUGE target on his back, but I almost doubt that it'll be that easy to get rid of him.

Personally I'm hoping for Chloe to be out, I do NOT, like that childish girl.

Reply BigUno (Guest), July 14th, 2012, 9:44 am

Odds @anime9001 No, the way to think of it is, A:B odds suggest a probability of B/(A+B)*100%. Thus 1:1 is called "even odds", 1/2, or 50%, not 100%.

Translating qazox's odds into percentages:
Xero = 4:9 = 9/13 = 69.2%
Chloe = 5:1 = 1/6 = 16.7%
Chrii = 10:1 = 1/11 = 9.1%
Jackie = 12:1 = 1/13 = 7.7%
Field = 25:1 = 1/26 = 3.8%

Those actually add up to a bit over 100%, which is normal for oddsmakers as it's how they turn a profit.

Reply Gigas (Guest), July 14th, 2012, 12:25 pm

@qazok: No. That is absurd. If you win 4 dollars for every 9 dollars put on Xero, that means you, the oddsmaker, expect Xero to go 225% of the time. Or, rather, slightly less than that so you can make a profit. If you're putting odds like that, why would anyone vote on Xero? You put 9 dollars, and if he goes you get back 4 dollars for a loss of $5, or if he loses you lose 9 dollars for a loss of $9. The larger number always goes on the left. For example, in blackjack, blackjack usually pays 3:2. That means for every 2 dollars you put down, you win back 3 dollars. The number on the right is how much you put in, the number on the left is how much you get back if you win. Your odds on Xero make no sense, unless you're using an odds system as of yet unknown to humans.

What you're saying is inconsistent. You're saying 4:9 means you think Xero is about twice as likely to be voted out as anyone else. That works if you say it does; 9 is about 2 times 4, so I'll let you define that as you like. But then you get to Chloe. You say her chance of going is 5:1. Using what you said above, that means you think her chance of going is 20% that of anyone else. That would essentially mean, using what you said above, you think she's safe. Same with Chrii, if 4:9 means they're twice as likely to be voted out as anyone else, then 10:1 means there one tenth as likely to be voted out as anyone else. In other words, if everyone else had equal odds, you'd expect her to be voted out 1% of the time (10 people going to tribal. Her odds are 1/10 of everyone else's. Everyone else's chance = 11%. Her odds = 1%. Some rounding errors, but you get the picture. For Xero, if everyone else's odds are equal, his chances would be double what everyone else's are, so his chances would be 18.18% of going, everyone else's would be 9.09%. That's double what anyone else's chances are. Unless you meant his odds of going are 66.66%, equal to double the chances of anyone else going.)

Sorry for that, that was stream of consciousness writing. Just focusing on Chloe and Xero for now. If Chloe's chances of going are 20%, that is equal to 1/5. So the number on the right divided by the number on the left. Then it follows from that that Xero's chances are 9/4, or 225%.

I don't really appreciate the condescending way you begin this comment either. Yes, I have taken a statistics course, and apparently better than the one you took.

@BigUno: First, I would like to thank you for clearing that up. It appears both qazox and I forgot about it being over the sum of the two numbers, not just the one on the left. However, odds never add up to over 100% if the oddsmaker wants to make a profit. That makes it so a person can make a profit by splitting up a bet around everyone. Assuming Qazok did, in fact, mean that Xero's odds are 9:4 so it's at least possible to win money by betting on him, I would place my bets as follows:

Xero - $44.44 = 99.99 if he goes
Chloe - $20 = 100 if she goes
Chrii - $10 = 100 if she goes
Jackie - $8.32 = 99.84 if he goes
Other - $4 = 100 if someone else goes

Total cost to me: $86.76
Profit I make for each person going:
Xero - $13.23
Chloe - $13.24
Chrii - $13.24
Jackie - $13.08
Other - $13.24

Any multiples of those numbers will work, and will always give me a profit. That is the reason the odds always add to less that 100%; otherwise the oddsmakers would make no money if they're lucky, and lose money if they aren't.

Reply Lemia (Guest), July 14th, 2012, 3:21 pm

Statistics aside, I just thought of a way Xero can turn this situation to his advantage, albeit only IF he managed to find the Yrsa'ka idol off-screen and IF Jackie is mad enough at him to not even bother trying to hide his blindside at Tribal Council: he announces out loud at Tribal Council that he's voting for Chrii, but votes for Ventious instead, and then plays his surprise idol. Chrii is forced to play her idol too, negating Chloe's spite vote against her and sending Ventious home.

Of course, that's a lot of IFs; it's more likely than not that the next comic will simply feature Xero Rewarded As A Traitor Deserves or Chloe getting caught in the crosshairs (as I can't see Jackie or Chrii going home this early). Still, at least he got an interesting boot episode.

Reply qazox, July 14th, 2012, 11:14 pm

@BigUno thanks for the help.

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